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Will shipping costs decrease or increase after the US fentanyl tariff of -10%?

2026-03-03

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Don't expect freight rates to decrease in the short term, but they won't increase too dramatically. The probability is that there will be a slight increase while maintaining stability


Within 1-2 months: The shortage of cabin space will continue, and shipping costs will be difficult to reduce. Now it is the peak season for cross-border e-commerce replenishment, and many sellers are stockpiling goods to prepare for year-end sales. The demand for cabin space will only increase or decrease. The shipping company has not added much capacity, and the supply-demand imbalance will continue. It is almost impossible to reduce freight rates,Maybe there will be a slight increase of 5% -10%.


Three months later: The peak season has passed, and freight rates may slightly decrease. After the end of the year peak season, the demand for cabin space will decrease. At that time, shipping companies may offer some discounted cabins, and freight rates may decrease by about 5%. But don't hold out too much hope, as the room for decline is limited.


Even though the "fentanyl" tariff has been reduced by ten points, the comprehensive tariff for "Made in China" is still as high as about 47%, far higher than several Southeast Asian countries. The brief ceasefire this time is expected to stimulate some shippers to speed up their shipping pace in the short term, but the proposed ceasefire period is only one year, which is still a road obstacle in the long runAnd long.

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